Miami Condo Sales Market Trends - Miami Condo Lifestyle

Miami Condo Sales Statistics - A Tale of Two Cities

Sept 9, 2008

Miami, Florida

"It was the best of times...it was the worst of times" ...the famous opening line from Charles Dickens historical classic set in Paris during the French Revolution. The same can be said of the condo market in Miami today. We really have two distinct markets, with two different sets of sales patterns following completely different trends based on whether the condominium has a waterfront location or not!

When people visit www.MiamiCondoLifestyle.com and contact me about buying in the Miami & Miami Beach market, their biggest concern has been "when will the market bottom and turn back up." Timing any market is difficult at best and more than likely impossible. There are possible indicators, though, such as increasing sales, lowering inventories and strengthening prices which could tell the tale.

The charts below show that from August of 2005 until August of 2008, condo inventory for sale in both groups has expanded dramatically but in the last twelve months waterfront inventory has actually dropped 4.1% while non-waterfront has risen 9.3%.

Additionally, the number of units sold, average selling price and median selling price for waterfront condos have risen in the last year but have fallen for non-waterfront over the same period.

Could this be the first glimpse of a strengthening market? For those who have heard me before, you know that I distrust statistics. They are easily manipulted to tell the story the writer intends. The charts below are drawn from actual closed sales data as reported by local Realtors through the Miami Multiple Listing Service. Additonal closings in brand new buildings sold by the developers have not been included as they are rarely closed in the MLS.

What I do find interesting is that both the OFHEO report, which only studies single family homes that are financed through Fannie and Freddie...not condos; and the Case-Schiller index erroneously lump both these market segments together. Frankly, this is extremely misleading and realistically it serves the needs of neither buyers nor sellers who must make business decisions in this market.

When is the right time to buy? Well, it's the time that makes the most sense for you. What is your time horizon for holding? are you planning a retirement in the next few years along with 60 million other baby-boomers? Are you relocating to Miami for a job? It is a buyers market. I suppose one could wait until the market turns back to a sellers market. Then, for sure, one would know that prices have started back up!

Often, the hardest obstacle to making a decision, is the feeling that the market will continue along it's prevailing trend...going up...it'll never stop...going down...it'll never stop. Obviously, the real estate market cycles but generally appreciates over time due to inflation. To identify actual opportunities, one must break out the sub-markets within each area and understand that in reality the real estate market boils down to one buyer and one seller striking a deal. There are tremendous opportunitites in all price ranges here, we can identify and find them for you.

Waterfront Condos

Non - Waterfront Condos